People are preparing themselves for the fact that we are already in a recession now or that there is a high likelihood we will soon be in one,” said Hady Farag, a partner and associate director at Boston Consulting Group.

The Walmart Recession Signal, a measure of Walmart's stock price relative to luxury stocks, has spiked leading up to the last four US downturns.

US recession outlook 2026: Stock markets are experiencing a significant slide, with the S&P 500 down over 6% and the Nasdaq in correction territory. This decline is fueling recession fears, as valuation metrics like the Shiller CAPE ratio and the Buffett indicator suggest the market may be overvalued.

Back in October, Mark Zandi warned that 22 U.S. states were already sliding towards recession (1). Now, with the war in Iran and rising geopolitical tensions adding further pressure, Moody’s Analytics says the odds of a nationwide downturn have climbed to nearly a coin flip — about 50% (2).

Economists have pulled up their risk assessments of a contraction amid heightened uncertainty over geopolitical risk and a labor market slump.

Driven by business cycles, geopolitics, pandemics and policy missteps, the economy periodically experiences recessions. There have been 9 recessions in the last 50 years, averaging about every 6 years,

The value of gold could be impacted by a recession, but maybe not in the way you'd expect. /iStockphoto . Gold has long stood out as a fascinating investment asset, no

Higher energy costs stemming from disruptions in Middle East exports will spill over to the US to some degree. Gauging how much of a shock the economy will absorb is challenging.

Could this be the end? The post If Trump’s War in Iran Spirals Into a Full-Blown Recession, It Could Crush the AI Industry and Spark a Catastrophic Polycrisis appeared first on Futurism.

New Zealand business sentiment slumped in March to the lowest since mid-2024 when the economy was in recession as the Middle East conflict hits the outlook for earnings and investment.

Stock market bulls should show a little more caution, given how past oil price shocks have impacted the economy. Every US recession, excluding the COVID-19 pandemic, was preceded by an oil price shock,